The funny thing about this situation is that the exact same type of stuff happens in the reverse and it seems totally reasonable. Here’s an example from the latest Freddie Mac report.
They reported that the following things are improving:
1) mortgage delinquencies
3) housing prices
4) mortgage rates
An impressive list. What more could you want for a housing market? And yet – markets are weak. On the Freddie Mac scale of points they haven’t noticed any improvement.
So either their system is off (pretty likely) or their data is faulty. Either way people should stop relying on them for reporting.
I say, go with your gut. If things are up, go with it. If there’s money flowing in, take advantage of it. And don’t sweat the “stats” from the experts. You guys on the street doing the real work, you’re the experts.